So far, the 30-year U.S. Treasury has been mounting a magnificent rally. As Templeton might say: this rally has been "fueled by skepticism." I'm no skeptic of the long bond, and some of you know that it was one of my long themes for 2011. The long bond's secular rally is very much in tact (which is starting to really creep me out - in economic terms), but the short term behavior of the 30-year is starting to resemble the final nights of John Belushi.
The cold months won't be kind to the long bond bulls...but the secular rally is NOT OVER, folks.
My opinion: Let the thing succumb to the forces of gravity, then...accumulate. Give the correction at least 4-6 months before you start nibbling.
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| 30-Year UST |
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